By Tom KandoFor the past 20 years, America’s crime rate has been declining. What I have been telling my students for years was confirmed again recently when the FBI published its annual Uniform Crime Report.
The US crime rate peaked in the late 1980s. Since then, it has declined almost non-stop, with some minor fluctuations.
A familiar argument used to be that annual crime statistics reflect record-keeping and law enforcement practices, rather than true changes in the real numbers of crimes committed. By now, this no longer washes at all.
The decline is too enormous for that. Furthermore, the drop is also found in easily tallied crimes such as murder, not subject to "record-keeping" whims. Criminal homicide peaked at over 10 per 100,000 in the late 1980s. Today, it is in the 4 to 5 range - i.e. less than half of what it was. America’s crime rate is now as low as it was during the 1950s - the "good old days."
Yet the public’s perception is that crime remains out of control. Paranoia is up. Worry about crime is as deep as ever.
This misconception about the extent of crime is just one error. Equally widespread are beliefs about the causes of crime. In a short post, I can only address the single most prevalent error - the belief that crime is primarily caused by poverty. Facts do not support this belief whatsoever, yet it is perhaps the single most widely quoted cliche, one voiced by politicians, peace officers, any lay person briefly interviewed on TV in some American city, even some criminologists, who should know better.
For the past 3 years, crime has plummeted, even as the economy tanked. The same thing happened ruing the Great Depression of the 1930s. Conversely, crime reached all-time highs during the Roaring Twenties and the turbulent sixties, both eras of great economic wealth and expansion. It sometimes almost seems that the correlation between crime and economic progress is negative!
Does punishment matter? We are now locking up astronomical numbers of people. 10 to 20 times as many as during the 1960s. By far the largest number of any country on earth. This trend began during the late 1960s. Does this factor have anything to do with the decline in crime?
Sorry, progressive readers, but yes, it does. The enormous increase in incarceration has made a contribution to the reduction of crime.
However (sorry conservative readers): we are now locking up far too many people. The optimal level of imprisonment was reached a long time ago. The law of diminishing returns has been in effect. It is now time to lock up fewer people, not more.
So why do most people still worry, erroneously, more about crime than about almost anything else?
There are many reasons of course, but two things seem very apparent: (1) The country is in a nasty mood right now, because things are hard. So it makes sense for people to feel that "life sucks all around, so crime must also be rampant, right?" and (2) the fear of crime is aided and abetted by the sleazy opinion-forming media and popular culture: Chanel surf your TV on any given day, and ten of the twenty shows being broadcast at any time of the day are likely to be crime and cop shows... Same with Hollywood and the printed press. That’s our culture, alas. leave comment here
6 comments:
Tom, your analysis rings pretty true to me. You haven't stopped doing sociology in your retirement. One point that may be contributing to the decrease in crime is better methods of collection and examination of evidence, such as DNA, that enable police to identify perpetrators. Such scientific evidence is also likely to sway a juror who would otherwise be on the fence with opposing testimonies and less willing to convict. This, of course, adds to the increased lock-up that you report.
You are also right that many TV programs and news reports are dedicated to crimes, because crime sells. People fear crime and shows where the "good guys" win over criminals are reassuring to watch.
However, we do need to be a bit obsessed about who criminals are and why certain segments of our society, from gang-ridden inner city areas to Wall street offices produce more than the average share of criminals.
Both culture and laws matter. People that grow up in areas where crime pays are more likely to engage in crime--whether it be an organized crime gang, or white collar government or corporate crime.
Gordon,
you are right. In fact, I just read somewhere that better police work is probably indeed a contributing factor.
I also just found out that, for the first time in several decades, our prison population has declined a bit. I hope that this means that our rate of incarceration has peaked.
The other thing some experts have proposed, is that there may be a long-term change going on in the American character, crime becoming less attractive to many...
"Tom, this is so true! My mom friends and I are always talking about how we are always so paranoid with leaving our kids in the front yard by themselves when back in the 80s when I was growing up it was commonplace to do so. My aunt told me that in the late 80s she left her daughter on the front porch to nap in the stroller after coming home from a walk so she could get chores done inside. Coming from the paranoia of today, I would never do that for fear of what could happen. I think the paranoia has to do with the news and access to information on the Internet. Today we hear about everything that happens when 20-30 years ago you only heard about your neighborhood events or the really bad things that happened around the country. Now you can look up sexual predators and whatever news you want simply by typing in a few words in Google. Great article!"
Thanks for your comment, Desiree. It is so ironic that our technology has supposedly expanded our world, but our fear of the 'what if...' has made us retreat into a self-imposed shell. You cannot win, can you?
I remember walking to K-2nd grade in Roseville many many blocks to
school...over a creek too! and playing outside in front and even away from home in Roseville & Citrus Heights with neighbors safely (My dad worked for railroad - he even invited bums in our home to feed them beans!! (with 3 little girls??) I now live around the corner where I grew up in NH since 86? Ben was about 5-6 when we moved to this house. Well, when he was 9, one night he was out on the front lawn (against my wishes) bouncing a ball against the house...and he came in and told me that a car pulled up
with 3 men and 2 got out and were coming up the yard to "get him" and he had the sense to run in the huse - thank goodness!! (I didn't know if he was lying to me at that time...but I thought about it and told myself I better believe him and I called the police and made a report.) I've asked him about this and he still doesn't deny it. I fear of the kids being abductged all the time...It is so sad that our society has degenerated so much! People quit going to church, etc."
Thanks for your touching and authentic accounts. The paradox is that the
overall crime rate was probably higher when you lived life in a more trusting way.
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