Monday, October 6, 2014
Two Pandemics: Ebola and Mass Insanity
by Tom Kando
The spread of Ebola scares me. We now have the first US case - Thomas Eric Duncan, who recently returned to Dallas from Liberia.
My friend Carol Anita Ryan explains on Facebook what R∘ means: It is the number of people that one sick person will infect (on average). For example, Measles has an R∘ of 18 (very contagious), whereas Ebola’s R∘ is only 2. Even so, this means that the disease doubles in a given period of time. An Ebola victim has about 100 contacts before he is isolated. 2 out of these contacts become sick and 98 don’t. Let’s say it takes one week for the number of infected people to double. Now consider an exponential curve that doubles every week: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, etc. If it starts with 2 cases at the beginning of October and doubles every week, it reaches 536,870,912 - 2 to the 29th power - by early April. By next April, everyone in North America is dead, and the entire world a month after that.
Nonsense, you say. Sure.
So, rather than horrifying you with idiotic numerical games, I’ll talk about another pandemic - one which IS ALREADY HERE :
On October 3, Olivier Knox published an article in the Yahoo News titled:
US Officials Acknowledge ‘Missteps’ in Dallas but Defend Ebola Response. There Will Be No Outbreak in the United States, They Say in White House Briefing.
The thousands of responses to this article were shocking. The vast majority immediately switched tacks and spouted off vitriolic hatred for: (1) President Obama, (2) “the” government and (3) democrats/liberals.
The comments had NOTHING to do with Ebola. In the minds of these people, there is only one bogeyman - the Obama/Government/Liberal Complex. They hold this complex responsible for EVERY imaginable problem - hurricanes, droughts, war, poverty, ISIS beheadings, now the spread of Ebola.
I don’t know whether we will suffer an Ebola epidemic, but the pandemic of mass political insanity, delusion, paranoia and conspiratorial thinking IS already here. These thousands of demented comments on Yahoo are probably just the tip of the iceberg. Millions of Americans have gone over the edge. Here is a tiny sample:
John: This is another step in Population Control. It is Much easier to control a Smaller population. If someone digs deep enough I am sure that the U.S. Government Manufactured this and other large outbreaks of death and destruction.
Disgusted: IF IT WASN'T FOR ho bamas PLAN TO ALLOW IT TO COME HERE WE WOULDN'T HAVE IT HERE. LOCK DOWN AFRICA AND LET THEM DIE IN THEIR OWN FILTH AND ANIMALISTIC OVER BREEDING
Commenter : Our grubbermint BREEDS liars and cheats!! that is why honest people can't get involved.
Gary Walker: These people are not incompetent, this is their plan.
T.: Obama said the risks of an Ebola out break were extremely low. I believed him. I believed him when he said I could keep my insurance. I believed him when he said that ISIS beheadings are work place violence. I am a Obama voter and I am stupid.
Texan: on facebook liberals are posting that there are more issues that are worse, like cancer. A vote for a democrat leader is for someone who thinks this way. They think a death by bleeding out of every pore isn't a crisis for Americans. Liberals ought to be made to take care of Africa instead of our soldiers. Do you really think a man who uses marines to hold an umbrella for him and salutes with his coffee has respect for our military? I wonder if he is laughing as he sends our troops there. If he is willing to send someone's kid, then he should send his own.
Vassar: ...as Obama has done a 1000 times, we will continue on out course toward national death.
Melvin: BS we don't owe other country's anything, they owe us, most have never came up with their pledges made in the last few conflicts. How in the hell do they think it grew into an epidemic in Africa ? "THINK ABOUT IT" full blown democratic Obama led corruption at a time 30 day's out to mid term elections.
Robert: The Oblammer administration (to use the term loosely) stopped flights to Israel because they were fighting the Palestinians, but wont stop flights from West Africa. Are we all stupid? We should all just stay home for the next month, don't go to work and on November 4th vote out every incumbent...and for god sake and the sake of your children don't elect Killery to anything but a free trip out of town.
Andrew: One step closer for the muslim brotherhood taking over our country, get Obama out now.
Edgar: WHAT ABOUT ALL THE "PROMISES" OBAMA MADE TO ALL THE PEOPLE THAT LOST THEIR HOMES. DO TO HURRICAN "SANDY". THAT'S ALL "OBAMA" DOES IS LIE AND MAKE CAMPHAIGN SPEECHES/PROMISES THAT "HE" HAS NO INTENTION OF KEEPING...IF YOU LIKE YOUR "HEALTH PLAN" YOU CAN KEEP IT " PERIOD ".... ANYBODY STUPID ENOUGH TO VOTE FOR OBAMA , "SHOULD" GET EBOLA.
Major Tom: Everything this buffoon touches turns to #$%$ now the stench is overwhelming .... The court jester of the Free world !!
Robert M.: The village idiot is smarter, he has an I.Q. of an inflated basketball.
And thousands more like this, none making any sense. Millions have lost their mind.
Here is a theory which I freely give to all these folks, for their enjoyment: Obama was elected by a cabal of African-Americans and their lefty allies, so as to take revenge for slavery. Their plan is now being carried out: Genocide and the extermination of all Americans, through the introduction of the African Ebola. This was their plan all along. Remember the reverend Jeremiah Wright and his “God Damn America” speech? It all adds up, doesn’t it?
Psychoses usually make a lot of sense to psychotics. leave comment here
© Tom Kando 2014
10 comments:
Tom if you start taking internet comments seriously as any true reflection on the attitudes of Americans whether they be morons from the right or the left you will drive yourself to an early grave. Most are probably trolls anyway! So for God's sake STOP! I like your blog & I'm not sure how good is the wifi in heaven.
Tom, these are certainly unrefereed comments. A blog is only as good as its supervision and integrity. Good blogs require constructive and civil comments, so I'm not sure you are lamenting "mass insanity" as much as "speech anarchy."
Excellent, Tom! I shudder at the thought of your gathering those comment -- from right-wing extremist websites. In the work I do, I spend a fair amount of time reading poll results and watching campaign distortion. Yes, there IS a bred of crazy people out there.
Thanks for your comments.
You all appear to hit a similar theme. Namely, questioning the source/representativeness of the garbage which I expose.
But I (mildly) disagree with you. I wish Barry were correct in labeling Yahoo an extremist website. It may be Republican, but it is fairly respectable. So we can’t dismiss the thousands of people who comment on articles published on the Yahoo homepage as a mere fringe.
This is why I fret so much about these expressions of public opinion. I believe that what I have documented is just the tip of the iceberg.
My friend Dr. Scott McNall, a highly respected sociologist, is working on a book which documents the growing distrust Americans feel for their government. I call it paranoia.
Hatred of and contempt for our government and for our chief executive go far back. It was also there under George W. Bush. Of course it was all on the Left in that case.
(As an aside: Europe and America are exact mirror opposites of each other in this respect: A majority of Americans embraced George W Bush and revile Obama, whereas most Europeans found Bush to be a buffoon, while (still) loving Obama.)
As to Gordon’s “speech anarchy,” yes, that IS an excellent concept.
But look: The Internet and its anonymity may bring out the worst, but public opinion HAS to be examined. As a sociologist, THAT is what I am interested in. The very first place to which I go every morning in the newspaper is the letters-to-the-editor section. I don’t have the time and resources to study public opinion scientifically, so I dabble in anecdotal/journalistic reports. But places like Yahoo are where the “DATA” are. To my knowledge, no sociological research is being done on the millions of (often obscene) Internet comments which I have documented. This is terrible, because that is where reality resides.
Tom Yahoo us not an extremist website, you are correct. However Extremist & Trolls are far far more likely to be posting comments than the typical reader.
Tom,
Interesting figures.
My take is, we must:
1. Snuff out this epidemic in the next few months using ever-improving protocols. This a.m. I heard the US Marine's medical chief assigned to Africa being interviewed, and was comforted to learn that "missteps" HELP the responders adapt quickly to the breadth of the situation in Africa, Dallas, or wherever. He clarified that the highly educated American medical workers now heading to Africa will set up mobile diagnostic labs to determine whether sick people have the flu, malaria, measles, etc, OR ebola. For safety, the labs will be located well apart from ebola sufferers — someone else extracts the samples. This will speed up medical attention for ebola sufferers, and the effort to track down and quarantine their contacts.
2. We must hope that the extreme anti-Obama, anti-government stupidity can be ignored as a lunatic fringe while educated, reasonable people of all political stripes promote truth -- intelligently and loudly.
I live in an Obama-hating environment, so I won't forward the horrid "reactions to the missteps news" -- those emails -- around my neighborhood for fear of fueling the echo-chamber of hatred. I'll be thinking about what I can do. I know many Republicans who would cringe to see their party associated with such gross stupidity and racism. This shouldn't be a political issue.
Thank you, Roy and Naida.
I agree with everything you wrote.
Tom,
regarding your very good article on mass insanity, I thought you would be interested in a little exchange I had today with someone at the gym where I work out. The person I spoke with is UC-educated, is informed and active in community affairs, and her husband is a prominent surgeon. As we spoke, the Fox newscaster on a nearby television reported the recent ebola death in the US. She immediately and emphatically shouted "That god damn Obama!" I asked her how she tied Obama to the death, and she said it was because he didn't stop flights from Africa. The idiocy epidemic is worse than the ebola epidemic, and apparently people from all walks of life are suffering from it.
Good example, Don.
Anyway, the woman is wrong even in terms of her specific allegation: They have started screening airport arrivals, as of a few hours ago.
Hi, Tom
Wise words, for sure.
The skilled sociologist will define terms far better than I could.
For example, if a rant appears on Facebook, shall we classify it as "Facebook" as a whole? Or simply see that it appears on a single page full of rants. For example, referencing Hillary Clinton:
10/07/2014
Judicial Watch, Inc.
Bob Parent:
Hillary.. don't waist your time. or ours. just run for dog catcher and keep your fingers crossed. should be fun for you. lol. a rat. running for dog catcher. lol.
Note well the spelling and capitalization errors seem to be more numerous in such comments.
BIG DATA
I'm writing a lot about Big Data these days. Great value in the physical sciences and business.
However, increasingly BD can be applied to the social sciences.
1. Thanks to trends.google.com we can see what kinds of searches people are doing.
2. Thanks to book.google.com/ngrams we can see emotive word occurrences in 20th century books.
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