by Tom Kando
Regarding Covid-19, there is quite a bit of talk about “herd immunity” lately. This is the view that the best response to the pandemic is neglect. That is, let the epidemic spread until a majority of the population is infected, after which most people recover and become immune. In this approach, mitigation measures are kept at a minimum; as is damage to the economy... and more people die.
Sweden is one country which tried this route initially. However, when its Covid-caused death rate soared, it changed course. In the US, it is the Republicans and the Trump administration of course who advocate “herd immunity.” The president himself, having survived the virus, is more than ever convinced that the pandemic will blow over and that there is little need for major mitigation.
Absent a vaccine, “herd immunity” can only be achieved if, say, 75% of the total population goes through the wringer (= catches the virus). But how many people die?
I fervently hope that our nation does not throw in the towel, and does not resign itself to “herd immunity,” i.e. to accepting the current astronomical rates of infection and death as the new normals.
However, our record so far is not promising.
I just played with a few numbers. Here are some sad results:
Countries that are worse off than the US (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/):
Number of infections per capita: Andorra, Bahrein, Qatar, Aruba, French Guiana, Israel, Vatican, Belgium, Panama, Czechia, Kuwait, Armenia and Montenegro. We rank 14th in the world. Good company!
Number of deaths per capita: San Marino, Peru, Belgium, Andorra, Bolivia, Spain, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador We rank 10th in the world. Great company! We can be proud of ourselves and thank our great leader Trump for having solved the Covid-19 problem!
© Tom Kando 2020;All Rights Reserved
7 comments:
Always appreciate hearing from you. Thank you! Hope you are well and staying safe.
Nice job.
"astronomical rates of infection and death"
Oh, does the hyperbole never stop? I don't consider 3% of our population testing positive in eight months as astronomical! In a nation that experiences three million deaths in a normal year, experiencing an additional 300k more deaths is not astronomical in a population of 330 million. We have become a nanny state!
And again, you are making apples to oranges comparisons in your national comparisons. If we exclude the high death rates from minorities that lead unhealthy life styles, the US Caucasian population rate would be better than virtually all European nations as evidenced from the following quote from https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race as of Oct 15:
"These are the documented, nationwide actual mortality impacts from COVID-19 data (aggregated from all U.S. states and the District of Columbia) for all race groups:
1 in 920 Black Americans has died (or 108.4 deaths per 100,000)
1 in 1,110 Indigenous Americans has died (or 90.0 deaths per 100,000)
1 in 1,360 Latino Americans has died (or 73.5 deaths per 100,000)
1 in 1,450 Pacific Islander Americans has died (or 68.9 deaths per 100,000).
Note that this rate declined slightly from our prior update due to the new inclusion of data for the state of Hawaii, which was not previously available, in its calculation.
1 in 1,840 White Americans has died (or 54.4 deaths per 100,000)
1 in 2,200 Asian Americans has died (or 45.4 deaths per 100,000)
I find it very interesting that the print and electronic media that I read (and perhaps I don't read the "right" media) a comparison of the current C-19 mortality with the Spanish flu mortality (1916-18 I think...four waves anyway) is not explored. Assuming that I have approximately correct mortality and USA population numbers from these two pandemics (from Wikipedia) 2 million Americans will have to die to match the percent of the population that we lost in 1916-18.
If my math is grossly incorrect I would be pleased to correct this observation.
One other note Tom...your interpretation of "herd immunity", meaning neglect, is not the clinical use of the word. I would agree with you that Trump has, in his public performances, been grossly inept and irresponsible but this should be described in some other manner than accusing him of promoting "herd immunity".
Does anyone really believe that a Biden Presidency will create new conditions for the erasure of C-19? The billons of American tax dollars already shoveled out the door to Big Phama is going to end this nightmare over the near months ahead.
Hello Robert:
As a matter of fact, I have compared the two pandemics in some detail, but not posted my findings, not wanting to burden readers with even more deadly statistics.
True, the equivalent number of US deaths would be about 2 million. This is the number which Trump keeps mentioning, in his effort to show that he is saving millions of lives. We have lost 236,000 lives in a little over 8 months. Doubling time is now about 140 days. At this rate, we would reach 2 million by the end of next year, i.e. after less than 2 years. The Spanish Flu pandemic lasted somewhat longer than that. And there was no vaccine. Must we replicate that nightmare?
Regarding “herd immunity” and “neglect:”
Of course, I simplify these terms: Other aspects of “herd immunity” include trying to protect the vulnerable populations, and of course a vaccine. But that’s the rub: There is no vaccine - yet. And as long as this is the case, we should do our utmost best to “flatten the curve,” to DELAY and minimize infections and deaths through maximum mitigation (masks, etc.). White house chief of staff Mark Meadows said “we are not going to control the pandemic,” which is an admission of the administration’s unwillingness to try harder. I use the word “neglect” as a short-hand. The question is HOW HARD we should try to mitigate, not either or.
The international record is clear: the countries that have worked the hardest at mitigation are suffering the least (Germany, Korea, Australia, Canada, many other countries, especially in Asia, even Mexico is doing better than us). So yes, we as a country have neglected the coronavirus, and we are paying the price for it. A change in leadership is no guarantee, but it is an absolute prerequisite.
Hallo Thomas, het ziet ernaaruit dat veel USAers behoorlijk slecht zijn in analyse van de politieke kopstukken, is het echt een dom volk? ik heb het erg druk met afspraken over mijn 1000-en negatieven die ik aan het uitzoeken ben, dus belangrijk: zijn jullie "gezond" en is het leven aardig om te leven? Al die branden in Calefornia, hebben jullie daar wat van gemerkt in Sacramento? Hier is alles oké, op wat ouderdomsgebreken na.{xx} voor Anita een{}voor joe!
ouwe vriend Frank PS Wat meer contact volgt tzt
This last Dutch comment seems to be about America’s problems (Covid-19, Trump, California fires, etc.).
The part which I don’t like is where Frank wonders whether “America is a dumb people.” (“dom volk”). I guess he bases this rhetorical conclusion on my post...
Of course, it’s insulting.
I hope (and I think) that on the whole, Americans are not necessarily dumber than Dutchmen (or Frenchmen, or other nationalities).
One could have a conversation about how poorly or well educated the different nations are. There is a much left to be desired in the American people’s education, certainly their secondary schools. But then, I am told that things are not hunky dory in European high schools either. Plus, American universities still dominate the world.
So I don’t know what to say about Frank’s suggestion that Americans are (more) dumb (than other people,) except to say that he shouldn’t say that, because it may not be true...
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