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Tom Kando
I continue to fret about the war in Ukraine. I worry about Putin's nuclear saber rattling.
All the pundits keep reassuring us that this is mere bluff and that there is very little chance of this war escalating into nuclear Armageddon. Most of us don't have sleepless nights worrying about the possibility of nuclear war. Many of us did, during the Cuban missile crisis, but not now.
1. The probability of a bad event happening should be inverse to how terrible the event is likely to be. Put differently, the greater a risk is, the smaller the probability of failure, when taking that risk, should be.
For example, it is possible that I will catch a cold this winter. If a doctor told me that there is a probability of .33 (one out of three) of this happening, I will not worry very much. On the other hand, if someone told me that there is a .003 probability of nuclear war in the coming six months (one out of 300), I would worry quite a bit.
In other words, the greater a possible upcoming catastrophe is, the closer to zero its probable occurrence should be.
I have no idea whether there exists a negative correlation between how terrible an event is and how likely it is to happen.
One important aspect is the time frame: Is the bad thing likely to happen soon or in the distant future? The catastrophes which Hollywood likes so much - giant earthbound asteroids, devastating earthquakes, etc. - have the advantage of following geological and astronomical timetables. We don't worry about them, in the belief that they only occur once in a million years. What about global warming - the destruction of the planet? This may be the worst thing that can happen to us, and its likelihood is quite high. But it is happening gradually. We are the slowly boiling frog.Dr. Theodore von Karman |
Tom Kando
My previous post's title was: It's the Guns, Stupid.
I subsequently thought: There is a simple way to prove this: Just draw up a list of places, list two variables for each place, namely (1) per capita gun ownership and (2) per capita murders, and see if there is a correlation between the two. For example, one could use a list of our 50 states for this or a list of the world's roughly 200 countries.
There
is anecdotal and journalistic evidence
that states and countries with high rates of gun ownership also have high murder
rates (e.g. Texas vs. Massachusetts, or the US vs, Holland). But I can't think of any systematic attempt to correlate the two
variables, using a list of states or countries. So I did it myself. It was
quite simple. I chose to list countries rather than US states. To make it
easier on myself I reduced the population to 45 Aimportant@ countries. I then listed each country's
rate of gun ownership and its murder rate. This produced a bi-variate 2x2 table, on
which I did a Chi Square significance test.
Of the 45 countries in my sample, 25 were Ahigh gun ownership@ and 20 were Alow gun ownership@ Of the same 45 countries, 17 were Ahigh murder rate@ and 28 were Alow murder rate. The table below gives the distribution of the 45 countries into 4 cells, as indicated:
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Tom Kando
It happened again - May 14: Ten innocent civilians (mostly black) mowed down by a racist lunatic. This time it happened in Buffalo. Eleven days earlier it was my hometown, Sacramento: Six dead - half of them women, half people of color.
American mass murder will never stop. We are moving in the wrong direction. After every mass shooting, thousands more add to their arsenal. There are four hundred million fire arms in private hands in this country, and the number is growing. An increasing proportion of these weapons are rapid-fire automatic, capable of firing dozens to hundreds of rounds per minute. They are created for mass murder and nothing else.
Public opinion is also moving in the wrong direction - with ever lower levels of support for gun control legislation.
Judicial decisions increasingly favor out-of-control gun ownership of any kind by anybody.
First, there was the 2nd Amendment It stated that Aa well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.@ Over time, the first half of this amendment became ignored. Judges came to misinterpret the amendment, ignoring the vast differences between the eighteenth century and current conditions.
In District of Columbia vs. Heller (2008), the U.S. Supreme Court held that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual right to possess firearms independent of service in a state militia and to use firearms for traditionally lawful purposes, including self‑defense within the home.
The powerful NRA lobby had done its job. Many additional judicial decisions at all levels confirmed the new interpretation of the 2nd amendment. A recent example occurred on May 11, 2022, when a US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that California=s law banning the sale of semiautomatic weapons to adults under twenty-one is unconstitutional. And so the 2nd amendment, which was questionable to begin with, morphed into a sacrosanct protection of one of the few constitutionally enumerated rights placed above all else. Presciently, Chief Supreme Court Justice Warren Burger had declared in 1991 that the Second Amendment is a fraud. True: the amendment=s current interpretation is most certainly fraudulent.