By Tom Kando
How
would the election turn out if the different ethnic, gender, age and economic
groups voted the way we are told that
they are likely to vote? Here are some
calculations I did to answer this question. My numbers are very rough, and some
may be off, but the differences are all
true.
1.
Table One: Support for Obama and Romney by (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age
and (4) income.
2.
Table Two: Size of American electorate, by (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age
and (4) income.
3.
Table Three: Voting Participation, by
(1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.
4.
Table Four: Likely numbers of votes going to Obama and Romney, by (1)
ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.
Conclusions:
1.
If people vote primarily on the basis of ethnicity, Obama loses by 42 to 58%
2.
If If people vote primarily on the
basis of gender, Obama loses by 49 to 51%
3.
If people vote primarily on the basis of age, Obama loses by 38 to 62%
4.
If people vote primarily on the basis of income, Obama wins by 56 to 44%
1. Support for the two Presidential Candidates
Group
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Total
|
1. Hispanics
|
70
|
30
|
100
|
2. Blacks
|
90
|
10
|
100
|
3.Non-Hisp. Whites
|
30
|
70
|
100
|
4. Asians
|
45
|
55
|
100
|
5. men
|
40
|
60
|
100
|
6. women
|
57
|
43
|
100
|
7. 18 thru 35 yrs.
|
60
|
40
|
100
|
8. 36+
|
38
|
62
|
100
|
9. income <$100,000
|
60
|
40
|
100
|
10.income >$100,000
|
40
|
60
|
100
|
Total US electorate
|
100%
|
240 million
|
1. Hispanics
|
15%
|
36 million
|
2. Blacks
|
13%
|
31 million
|
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
|
67%
|
161 million
|
4. Asians
|
5%
|
12 million
|
5. Men
|
49%
|
118 million
|
6. Women
|
51%
|
122 million
|
7. 18 through 35 years old
|
13%
|
31 million
|
8. 36+
|
87%
|
209 million
|
10. Income <$100,000
|
80%
|
192 million
|
11. Income >$100,000
|
20%
|
48 million
|
Total number of Americans who
vote
|
58%
|
140 million votes
|
1. Hispanics
|
44%
|
16 million “
|
2. Blacks
|
44%
|
14 million “
|
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
|
64%
|
103 million
“
|
4. Asians
|
60%
|
7 million “
|
5. Men
|
56%
|
66 million “
|
6. Women
|
60%
|
73 million “
|
7. 18 through 35 years old
|
33%
|
10 million
“
|
8. 36+
|
62%
|
130 million
“
|
9. Income <$100,000
|
55%
|
106
million “
|
10. Income >$100,000
|
70%
|
34
million “
|
4. Votes Likely to Go to Obama and Romney
Group
|
proportions
Obama/Romney
|
Total votes
|
To Obama
|
To Romney
|
1. Hispanics
|
70-30%
|
16 million
|
11 million
|
5 million
|
2. Blacks
|
90-10%
|
14 million
|
13 million
|
1 million
|
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
|
30-70%
|
103 million
|
31 million
|
72 million
|
4. Asians
|
45-55%
|
7 million
|
3 million
|
4 million
|
Total:
|
42-58%
|
140 million
|
58 million
|
82 million
|
Group
|
proportions
|
Total votes
|
To Obama
|
To Romney
|
5. Men
|
40-60%
|
66 million
|
26 million
|
40 million
|
6. Women
|
57-43%
|
73 million
|
42 million
|
32 million
|
Total:
|
49-51%
|
140 million
|
68 million
|
72 million
|
Group
|
proportions
|
Total votes
|
To Obama
|
To Romney
|
7. 18 thru 35 yrs old
|
60-40%
|
10 million
|
6 million
|
4 million
|
8. 36+
|
38-62%
|
130 million
|
49 million
|
81 million
|
Total:
|
39-61%
|
140 million
|
55 million
|
85 million
|
Group
|
proportions
|
Total votes
|
To Obama
|
To Romney
|
9. Income <$100,000
|
60-40%
|
106 million
|
64 million
|
42 million
|
10. Income >$100,000
|
40-60%
|
34 million
|
14 million
|
20 million
|
Total:
|
56-44%
|
140 million
|
78 million
|
62 million
|
