Thursday, May 3, 2012

PROGNOSTICATIONS ABOUT THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

By Tom Kando


We know that (1) Blacks and Hispanics are more likely to vote for Obama, whereas whites are not, (2) women are more likely to vote for Obama whereas men are not, (3) young people are more likely to vote for Obama whereas old people are not and (4) low-income people are more likely to vote for Obama whereas upper-income people are not.

How would the election turn out if the different ethnic, gender, age and economic groups  voted the way we are told that they are likely to vote?   Here are some calculations I did to answer this question. My numbers are very rough, and some may be  off, but the differences are all true.

1. Table One: Support for Obama and Romney by (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.

2. Table Two: Size of American electorate, by (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.

3. Table Three: Voting Participation, by  (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.

4. Table Four: Likely numbers of votes going to Obama and Romney, by (1) ethnicity, (2) gender, (3) age and (4) income.

Conclusions:

1. If people vote primarily on the basis of ethnicity, Obama loses by 42 to 58%

2. If   If people vote primarily on the basis of gender, Obama loses by 49 to 51%

3. If people vote primarily on the basis of age, Obama loses by 38 to 62%

4. If people vote primarily on the basis of income, Obama wins  by 56 to 44%


1. Support for the two Presidential Candidates


Group
Obama
Romney
Total
1. Hispanics
70
30
100
2. Blacks
90
10
100
3.Non-Hisp. Whites
30
70
100
4. Asians
45
55
100
5. men
40
60
100
6. women
57
43
100
7. 18 thru  35 yrs.
60
40
100
8. 36+
38
62
100
9. income <$100,000
60
40
100
10.income >$100,000
40
60
100


2. Size of US Electorate, by Group

Total US electorate
100%
240 million
1. Hispanics
15%
 36 million
2. Blacks
13%
31 million
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
67%
161  million
4. Asians
5%
12 million
5. Men
49%
118 million
6. Women
51%
122 million
7. 18 through 35 years old
13%
31 million
8. 36+
87%
209 million
10. Income <$100,000
80%
192 million
11. Income >$100,000
20%
48 million


3. Voting participation, by Group

Total number of Americans who vote
58%
140 million votes
1. Hispanics
44%
16 million       “
2. Blacks
44%
14 million       “
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
64%
103  million    “
4. Asians
60%
7 million         “
5. Men
56%
 66 million      “
6. Women
60%
 73 million      “
7. 18 through 35 years old
33%
10  million      “
8. 36+
62%
 130 million    “
9. Income <$100,000
55%
 106  million   “
10. Income >$100,000
70%
 34  million     “



4. Votes Likely to Go to Obama and Romney

Group
proportions
Obama/Romney
Total votes
To Obama
To Romney
1. Hispanics
70-30%
16 million
11 million
5 million
2. Blacks
90-10%
14 million
13 million
1 million
3. Non-Hispanic Whites
30-70%
103  million
31 million
72 million
4. Asians
45-55%
7 million
3 million
4 million
Total:
42-58%
140 million
58 million
82 million


Group
proportions
Total votes
To Obama
To Romney
5. Men
40-60%
 66 million
26 million
40 million
6. Women
57-43%
 73 million
42 million
32 million
Total:
49-51%
140 million
68 million
72 million


Group
proportions
Total votes
To Obama
To Romney
7. 18 thru 35 yrs old
60-40%
10 million
6 million
4 million
8. 36+
38-62%
130 million
49 million
81 million
Total:
39-61%
140 million
55 million
85 million


Group
proportions
Total votes
To Obama
To Romney
9. Income <$100,000
60-40%
106 million
64 million
42 million
10. Income >$100,000
40-60%
34 million
14 million
20 million
Total:
56-44%
140 million
78 million
62 million


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