Homicide: Locally and Globally

By Tom Kando

As I open the morning newspaper, hardly a day goes by when I don’t see a notice of another gun death  in the greater Sacramento  region. The small notices are usually  hidden on a secondary  page. The forever snuffing out of a  human life  is so banal, so everyday.  On January one  of this year, I started keeping count.

As of January nine , the Sacramento Bee   has reported  9 people  shot to death in the greater Sacramento area. Yes - one per day. This includes one suicide, one suspect killed by a cop,  and the double murder on New Year’s eve.

If this trend continues, we will end up with 365 deaths by gun for the year. I know, my total so far is  a mishmash. Still, gun deaths are gun deaths.

The Uniform Crime Reports’ official statistics tell us the following:
Number of criminal homicides in 2011 in  Sacramento city (pop. not quite half a million): 36.

Number of criminal homicides in 2011 in Sacramento MSA (2.2 million people): 95.

This is  a rate of 4.4 per 100,000.

I guess if you include suicides by gun plus suspects killed by cops, you probably arrive at about one gun death per day in our region. The suicide rate is more than two and a half times  the murder  rate. However, not all suicides are by gun. And about  a dozen people  are killed by policemen each year in our region.   So, yes,  my informal  survey results are compatible with the official stats: Our region probably experiences, on average, close to one gun death per day.

In the aftermath of the Newtown massacre, the gun issue is still hot, as is that of murder. So I thought I’d give you some worldwide data on criminal homicide.
(See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate)

Region/Continent	Rate per 100,000	Count
Africa	17.0	169,105
Caribbean	16.9	7,001
Central America	28.5	44,997
Highest rate in the world: Honduras	91.6	7,104
Mexico	22.7	25,757
North America	3.9	15,302
US	4.8	14,748
Canada	1.6	554
South America	20.0	79,039
Highest count in the world: Brazil	21.0	40,974
Asia	3.1	127,120
China	1	13,410
Japan	0.4	506
Europe	3.5	24,025
Highest count: Russia	10.2 (2.5 times US)	14,574 (more than US)
Eastern Europe	6.4 (Higher than US)	19,828
Western Europe	1.0	1,852
France	1.1	682
Germany	0.8	690
Italy	0.9	529
Monaco	0	0
Netherlands	1.1	179
Switzerland	0.7	52
United Kingdom	1.2	722
Australia	1.0	229
Palau	0	0
World	6.9 (Higher than US)	466,078

Comments:

First, how does the US compare?  We keep hearing how terribly high our homicide rate is. But it is also possible to “look at the glass as half full:” At a rate of 4.8 per 100,000, the US rate is (1) well below the world’s average, (2) two and a half times below that of Russia, (3) lower than that of Eastern Europe, (4) only slightly higher than that of the whole of Europe, and most importantly, two and a half times lower than a generation ago! For example, back then, New York City had  2,000 murders per year, now it has 400! Of course, we can do better. But facts are facts.

As to causes and correlations: I can only touch very briefly on a few of the major arguments that have been raging  since the Newtown massacre.

1. Is there a correlation between the prevalence of mental illness (treated or not) and the rate of criminal homicide? NO.

2. Between the rate of single parenthood, decline of “family values,” etc., and criminal homicide?  Not a direct one.

3.  Socio-economic conditions? YES (but  this is  very complicated)

4. Culture? Absolutely. The South has always been the most violent and criminal region of the US.  Latin America  has always had the highest rate of criminal violence in the world. Culture explains much of these two  facts. Culture includes values such as machismo, honor,  and also violent popular culture.

5. The SINGLE STRONGEST CORRELATE of the homicide rate: AGE. The younger a country’s population is, the higher its crime rate. In the US, 98% of all crimes are committed by people under 50; 2% by people over 50. As our country ages, it becomes less criminal. The Third World is more violent because its population is younger.

6.  The second most important correlate of crime is GENDER. Not a single one of the recent mass murders in America was committed by a woman.

7. Finally: Is there a positive correlation between the rate of criminal homicide and the prevalence of guns?  No correlation is perfect, but the answer to this  is YES. 

Keep in mind that ALL relationships  are multi-causal, and that the ultimate  answer to all seven  items is, “it depends.”  But to do justice to these factors  will require a future post. For now, just remember  one easy formula:

MORE GUNS = MORE DEATHS. leave comment here