I have been monitoring the corona virus’ spread, and I also just communicated with some
friends in Holland.
As of March 5, 88 countries have been contaminated by the pandemic. Of these, only 18 have
experienced deaths. In 70 of these countries, no one has died yet. To be sure,
a majority of these 70 countries are just beginning to be infected: In 21 of
them, only one case has been identified
so far. Half of the zero-death countries (35) have only reported between
1 and 5 cases until now.
However, some of the zero-death countries already have
significant numbers of cases, so we can start asking: What are they doing
right? How do they differ from countries where the death rate is significantly
higher? Can we learn from them?
Coronavirus spread as of March 5, selected countries, zero death rate
|
|||
Country
|
number of cases
|
equivalent for US
|
number of deaths
|
Germany
|
543
|
2,172
|
0
|
Singapore
|
117
|
6,786
|
0
|
Switzerland
|
93
|
4,332
|
0 (March 4)
|
United Kingdom
|
116
|
580
|
0 (March 4)
|
Scandinavia
|
249
|
2,988
|
0
|
Kuwait
|
58
|
4,640
|
0
|
Bahrain
|
55
|
11,990
|
0
|
Malaysia
|
55
|
567
|
0
|
Netherlands
|
82
|
1,574
|
0
|
Canada
|
37
|
322
|
0
|
Total
|
1405
|
1,686
|
0
|
US
|
221
|
221
|
12
|
Other noteworthy countries where the death rate is not zero,
but close to it, are listed in the second table.
Coronavirus spread as of March 5, selected countries, low death rate
|
|||
Country
|
number of cases
|
equivalent for US
|
number of deaths
|
Japan
|
364
|
946
|
6
|
France
|
425
|
2,073
|
7
|
Spain
|
282
|
1,974
|
3
|
Hong Kong
|
105
|
4,641
|
2
|
Australia
|
60
|
798
|
2
|
Thailand
|
47
|
222
|
1
|
Taiwan
|
44
|
603
|
1
|
Total
|
1,327
|
1,194
|
22
|
US
|
221
|
221
|
12
|
Table 2 reveals that Japan, France, Spain, Hong Kong,
Australia, Thailand and Taiwan are all more contaminated than the US, yet
currently suffer from a lower death rate caused by the coronavirus.
One additional
country which must be mentioned is Vietnam: While it has identified 16
cases, EVERY one of these cases has fully recovered.
Of course, one can always
question the reliability of these
numbers.
The main question on my mind is to what extent (some of)
these differences have to do with how
countries RESPOND to the crisis. Meaning, among other things, the
efficiency, resources, competence and speed with which the medical and governmental
authorities are dealing with the
situation.
For example, how are various countries dealing with the
TESTING of suspected patients? According to news accounts, the US hasn’t
handled this very well. There are
conflicting reports: On the one hand, we are told that
testing is just now becoming universally available. On the other hand,
one hears that the supply of test kits is still vastly insufficient.
Then there is
the minimizing of public gatherings such as sports events,
which many of the worst affected countries such as Italy have implemented.
Another important measure are school closures, which have
been in effect in Japan and in the Netherlands.
This morning, a Dutch friend reported to me that her nieces
are quietly doing their homework at
home. They receive their assignments by computer. The schools are closed, and there are no
sports events. They are allowed to go outside and to go buy necessities.
Of course, these
actions are all about minimizing the spread, not preventing
patients from dying.
Why the mortality rate varies so
sharply from country to country is not clear. Are some countries “healthier”
and/or more resistant to (some)
diseases than others? Do different gene pools respond to viruses
differently? Obviously, the reasons for these differences are far more
complicated than I could ever figure out.
I suppose I could go on a rant
about the vaunted superiority of medicine in
Europe, Canada, Japan and elsewhere, and America’s alleged backwardness
in this regard. But I have no evidence whatsoever about how the different
countries have responded to this crisis so far. And I certainly don’t wish to
politicize this issue.
© Tom Kando 2020;All Rights Reserved
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