The Coronavirus

by Tom Kando

I have been monitoring the corona virus’ spread,  and I also just communicated with some friends  in Holland.  

As of March 5, 88 countries have been contaminated  by the pandemic. Of these, only 18 have experienced deaths. In 70 of these countries, no one has died yet. To be sure, a majority of these 70 countries are just beginning to be infected: In 21 of them, only  one case has been  identified  so far. Half of the zero-death countries (35) have only reported between 1 and 5 cases until now.

However, some of the zero-death countries already have significant numbers of cases, so we can start asking: What are they doing right? How do they differ from countries where the death rate is significantly higher? Can we learn from them?

I have listed  the countries which combine a zero-death rate with an already fairly widespread epidemic within their borders. The first table below shows the ten most notable such countries, and I compare their numbers with ours:

                                   

Coronavirus spread as of March 5, selected countries, zero death rate
Country	number of cases	equivalent for US	number of deaths
Germany	543	2,172	0
Singapore	117	6,786	0
Switzerland	93	4,332	0  (March 4)
United Kingdom	116	580	0 (March 4)
Scandinavia	249	2,988	0
Kuwait	58	4,640	0
Bahrain	55	11,990	0
Malaysia	55	567	0
Netherlands	82	1,574	0
Canada	37	322	0
Total	1405	1,686	0
US	221	221	12

Other noteworthy countries where the death rate is not zero, but close to it, are listed in the second table.

Coronavirus spread as of March 5, selected countries, low death rate
Country	number of cases	equivalent for US	number of deaths
Japan	364	946	6
France	425	2,073	7
Spain	282	1,974	3
Hong Kong	105	4,641	2
Australia	60	798	2
Thailand	47	222	1
Taiwan	44	603	1
Total	1,327	1,194	22
US	221	221	12

                                   

Table 2 reveals that Japan, France, Spain, Hong Kong, Australia, Thailand and Taiwan are all more contaminated than the US, yet currently suffer from a lower death rate caused by the coronavirus.

One additional  country which must be mentioned is Vietnam: While it has identified 16 cases, EVERY one of these cases has fully recovered.

Of course, one can always  question  the reliability of these numbers.

                                               

The main question on my mind is to what extent (some of) these differences have to do with how  countries RESPOND to the crisis. Meaning, among other things, the efficiency, resources, competence and speed with which the medical and governmental authorities are dealing with  the situation.

For example, how are various countries dealing with the TESTING of suspected patients? According to news accounts, the US hasn’t handled this very well.  There are conflicting reports: On the one hand, we are told  that  testing is just now becoming universally available. On the other hand, one hears that the supply of test kits is still vastly insufficient.

Then  there is the  minimizing of  public gatherings such as sports events, which many of the worst affected countries such as Italy have implemented.

Another important measure are school closures, which have been in effect in Japan and in the Netherlands.

This morning, a Dutch friend reported to me that her nieces are quietly doing  their homework at home. They receive their assignments by computer.  The schools are closed, and there are no sports events. They are allowed to go outside and to go buy necessities.

Of course,  these actions  are all  about minimizing the spread, not preventing patients from dying.

Why the mortality rate varies so sharply from country to country is not clear. Are some countries “healthier” and/or  more resistant to (some) diseases  than others?  Do different gene pools respond to viruses differently? Obviously, the reasons for these differences are far more complicated than I could ever figure out.

I suppose I could go on a rant about the vaunted superiority of medicine in  Europe, Canada, Japan and elsewhere, and America’s alleged backwardness in this regard. But I have no evidence whatsoever about how the different countries have responded to this crisis so far. And I certainly don’t wish to politicize this issue.

All I am suggesting  is that it would be wise for us to find out if other countries are taking steps that help mitigate the problem, and to promptly learn what these are.  I would surely like to know why ZERO out of nearly 600 German patients have died, versus 12 out of 221 Americans, so far.

© Tom Kando 2020;All Rights Reserved

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