Sunday, August 15, 2021

Which are the Best and the Worst Olympic Countries?



Halfway through the recent Olympic Games, I came across  an article by a Dan Wetzel, titled

Sorry, America: China’s leading the real Olympic medal count.

Dan complained  that most of our media  rank countries by their TOTAL number of medals, regardless of whether they are gold, silver or bronze. This puts  America on top and China second. However, Wetzel  felt that  countries should be ranked by the number of GOLD medals they win. He claimed that the entire rest of the world agrees with this.

As it turned out, America ended up with BOTH the largest number of total medals AND the largest number of gold medals. So Wetzel’s gripe is moot.

Nevertheless, I want to point out  that Wetzel was wrong. The differences between gold, silver and bronze performances are often in the milliseconds. It’s often absurd to dismiss   silver and bronze  performances as far inferior to  gold performances. The three  are often extremely close. So the total number of medals is more meaningful than just the number of golds.

Furthermore, I have long used a compromise between Wetzel’s position and mine, one which I think is reasonable and could satisfy both sides of the argument: We can WEIGH the three colors by awarding a country 3 points for every gold medal, 2 points for every silver and 1 point for every bronze.  Then, rank countries by their total  number of points.

I have reviewed the Olympic Games on several occasions in the past: The 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver(Are Countries with the Most Olympic Medals Morally Superior?), the 2004 Summer Games in Athens and the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing  (Which Are the Best and the Worst Olympic Countries?) and the 2016 Summer Games in Rio (Why Are Some Countries Good and Some Bad at the Olympics?).In all these previous essays, I used my weighing method. And surprise: Wetzel himself at one point  suggests this exact same method, although he doesn’t run with it.

206 countries participated in the 2021 Tokyo Games. Of these, 93 received at least one bronze medal. Table One ranks  thirty of these countries by their weighed totals: 

Table One: Countries Ranked by Olympic Medals Points    

Countries Ranked

Gold (3 pts.)

Silver (2 pts.)

Bronze (1 pt.)

Total pts.

1. US              

39

41

33

232

2. China           

38

32

18

196

3. Russia        

20

28

23

139

4. UK            

22

21

22

130

5. Japan         

27

14

17

126

6. Australia    

17

7

22

87

7. Italy           

10

10

20

70       

8.Netherlands             

10

12

14

68

9. Germany    

10

11

16

68

10. France     

10

12

11

65

11. Canada    

7

6

11

44

12. Brazil      

7

6

8

41

13. New Zealand  

7

6

6

39

14. Hungary    

6

7

7

39

20. Switzerland

3

4

6

23

23. Kenya

4

4

2

22

32. Iran

3

2

2

15

33. Belgium

3

1

3

14

35. Slovenia

3

1

1

12

38. India

1

2

4

11

48. Ireland

2

0

2

8

58. South Africa

1

2

0

7

60. Bahamas

2

0

0

6

66. San Marino

0

1

2

4

67. Fiji

1

0

1

4

72. Mexico

0

0

4

4

73. Bermuda

1

0

0

3

85. Saudi Arabia

0

1

0

2

86. Grenada

0

0

1

1

90. Syria

0

0

1

1

The question is: What causes  countries to do well or not at the Olympics? The Games have always been a nationalistic extravaganza. Countries often use them for political propaganda to support their  claim that Olympic excellence indicates social and moral superiority. Most blatantly guilty of this were  former frequent  winners such as the Soviet Union and East Germany. Of course, I reject this absurd claim in my previous posts. Instead, I  discuss some of the variables that  do, in fact, correlate with and cause   success or failure. These include: wealth, culture, and above all, population. The perennial winners tend to be large, affluent, Western countries.

The  most obvious thing to do is to compare countries in terms of PER CAPITA medals/points  rather than absolute numbers. This is what table Two does for thirty selected countries.

Table Two: Countries Ranked by Olympic Medals Points Per Capita

Country

Pts.

Population

Per capita

1. San Marino             

4

34,000

1 per 8,500 population

2. Bermuda    

3

.63,000

1 per 21,000

3. Bahamas    

6

389,500

1 per 65,000                        

4. Grenada                          

1

.112,000

1 per 112,000

5. New Zealand   

39

4.9 million

1 per 126,000

7. Slovenia                          

12

2.1 million

1 per 175,000

9. Fiji                                                                               

4

890,000

1 per  223,000

10. Hungary                                                                     

39

9.8 million

1 per 251,000

11. Netherlands                  

68

17.3 million

1 per 254,000

13. Australia                          

87

25.4 million

1 per 292,000

18. Switzerland    

23

8.5 million

1 per 370,000

25. UK         

130

66.7 million

1 per 513,000

27. Ireland                          

8

4.9 million

1 per 613,000

33. Belgium   

14

11.5 million

1 per 821,000

34. Canada                         

44

37.6 million

1 per 855,000

35. Italy                                                                           

70       

60.4 million

1 per 863,000

38. Russia                              

139

144.4 million

1 per 1 million

39. Japan                             

126

126.3 million

1 per 1 million

40. France                           

65

67.1 million

1 per 1 million

44. Germany   

68

83 million

1 per 1.2 million

50. US             

232

328.2 million

1 per 1.4 million

60. Kenya                           

22

52.6 million

1 per 2.4 million

72. Brazil                            

41

211 million

1 per 5.1 million

73. Iran                               

15

82.9 million

1 per 5.5 million

75. China     

196

 1400 million

1 per 7.2 million

76. South Africa 

7

58.6 million

1 per 8.4 million

84. Syria   

1

17.1 million

1 per 17.1 million

85. Saudi Arabia  

2

34.3 million

1 per 17.2 million

90, Mexico   

 

127.6 million

1 per 31.9 million

93. India                             

 

1,366 million

1 per 124.2 million

It is no miracle that the US and China garnered hundred  times as many medals/points as San Marino and. Bermuda.

Table  Two shows each country’s performance while CONTROLLING for population size:

A. The US earned  1 point  per 1.4 million population. It therefore ranks as the  50th strongest country,  out of 206.

B. China did even worse: It earned 1  point  per 7.2 million population, thus ranking as the  75th best.

C. Japan did a bit better, earning 1 point  per one million population,  which puts it   39th place. It had the advantage of being the host country.

D. The best performers tended to be micro-states and small island nations. Here is a list of nine  such countries, along with their rank. (Lack of space prevents me from providing a full list of all 93 countries): San Marino: One point for every 8,500 inhabitants! (#1);  Bermuda (#2), Bahamas: (#3), Grenada: (#4).  Jamaica (#6), Fiji (#9), Cuba (#17) Qatar (19) Bahrein (#32).

E. Another high performing group consists of  fifteen former Communist, Eastern European countries: Slovenia (#7), Georgia (#8), Hungary (#10), Kosovo (#15), Estonia (#16), Serbia (#20), Czechia (#21), Latvia (#22), Armenia (#24), Bulgaria (#26), Mongolia (#28), Slovakia (#29), Belarus (#31), Azerbaijan (#37) and  Russia (#38): These  fifteen countries all received 1 point per million population or better. 

F. Another very successful group consists of four highly developed “Anglo” nations:  New Zealand (#7); Australia (#17), Ireland (#27), Canada (#34). A vibrant sports culture also contributed to these countries’ excellence.

G. Eleven highly affluent Western European countries also belong to the more successful  Olympic performers: The Netherlands (#11), Scandinavia, (Denmark #12, Norway #14, Sweden #23),  Switzerland (#18),the UK (#22), Belgium (#33), Italy (#35), Austria (#36) and France (#40).  All earned one point per one  million or fewer inhabitants. Only Germany (#44) did a little worse.

H. East Asia’s performance  ranged  from “ok” to bad:  This group includes the following seven countries:  Hong Kong (#30), Taipei (#45), South Korea (#51), Malaysia (#78), Philippines (#82), Thailand (#86) and  Indonesia (#91).

I.  Similarly mediocre was the performance of nine less affluent European states: North Macedonia (#43), Greece (#46), Poland (#52), Lithuania (#53), Portugal #54), Ukraine (#55), Romania (#56), Croatia (#61), and Moldova (#63). Note that  many of these are former Soviet countries, too.

J. Two European countries are “outliers:” Finland (#64) and  Spain (#77) are rich and they have a vibrant sports  culture. They will do much better in the future, as they have in the past.

K. Overall, Latin America’s performance was mediocre to poor. This includes the following eight jurisdictions: Puerto Rico (#42), Dominican Republic (#47), Ecuador (#62), Venezuela (#67), Brazil (#72), Colombia (#74), Argentina (#80), Mexico (#90). Obviously, these are not very affluent countries.

L. Then there are fourteen Middle Eastern and other Muslim countries. They mostly performed badly. They are Israel (#41),Kyrgyzstan #48),  Kazakhstan (#57), Tunisia (#58), Turkmenistan (#65), Uzbekistan (#66), Jordan (#68), Kuwait (#69), Turkey (#70), Iran (#73), Egypt (#79), Morocco (#81), Syria (#84), Saudi Arabia (#85). All these countries except Israel are Muslim, and none are highly developed. Some of them are also  former Soviet countries.

M.  As a group, the ten African countries’ performance was the worst. These countries are: Namibia (#49), Botswana (#59). Kenya (#60), Uganda (#71), South Africa (#76), Ethiopia (#83), Burkina Faso (#87), Cote d’Ivoire (#88), Ghana (#89) and  Nigeria (#92). Obviously, their performance  reflects the fact that  this is the poorest part of the world. Then, too,  many of these countries’ best athletes have  moved to Europe and to the  US.

N. Finally, there is India (#93), with the worst Olympic record of any country  receiving  medals.

O. The remaining 113 participants did not gain any medals.

In sum: Large and  rich  countries are able to send huge delegations to the Olympics: In 2021, The US had the largest delegation of athletes, as  usual (613), followed by Japan (552), Australia (472), Germany (425) and China (406).

In addition, culture plays a role. For example, India, with a population that is over four times larger than that of the US, ended up dead last in the medal count. Clearly, it is not very much into organized sports, or at least not  those which are represented at the Olympics. Most Olympic sports are Western sports.

Finally, many very large countries did poorly:

Here are nine such countries. In absolute terms they rank as follows: Brazil (#12), Iran (#32, India (#38), Egypt (#47), Philippines (#53), Indonesia (#54), Ethiopia (#59), Mexico (#72) and Nigeria (#78).

In per capita terms, their rankings are far worse: Brazil (#72), Iran (#73), Egypt (#79) Philippines (#82), Ethiopia (#83), Mexico (#90),  Indonesia (#91), Nigeria (#92), India (#93). The common denominator is, of course, poverty.

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at 10:47:00 PM