TOM KANDO At the risk if seeming wishy-washy, let me add to my analysis of this conflict. The situation is serious enough to warrant this:
There are two sides to the issue:
My post of Feb. 1 "War Against Russia is not an Option" states Russia’s concerns. I express my worry about NATO’s expansion after the fall of the Soviet Union. We are now reaping the consequence of this error. At the same time, Russia’s brutal invasion of its neighbor must be condemned.
In my last post, I noted Russia’s historical tendency to resort to war against its neighbors and to support regimes opportunistically and immorally for its own nationalistic aims (for example its support of Syria’s murderous Bashar Al-Assad). So there is plenty of blame to go around.
Because of the stakes, and the fact that they pit the two nuclear superpowers against each other, there is no rational alternative to diplomacy and negotiations. This must include two things regarding Ukraine:
(1) Its free and independent existence and
As to the rest of NATO and new members such as the Baltic states: These issues should be resolved by determining the possible and the feasible, during protracted negotiations. Presently, we are statutorily obligated to go to war if these NATO members are attacked (same regarding the mini-states that came out of the former Yugoslavia, plus the former Eastern European Soviet satellites). This is an absurdly heavy blanket promise. Are we ready for nuclear World War Three over a state smaller than Sacramento?
It is not clear what will be acceptable to Russia in the long run, what will assuage her anxieties and prevent further Russian aggression.
What is clear is that there must be rapprochement and compromise between NATO and Russia.
The situation was far more promising right after the fall of Soviet Communism. In 1991, there was talk of Russia joining NATO. While nothing came of this, the two sides did develop a coordinated relationship under the RNC (Russia-NATO Council). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, cooperation has dwindled, and by 2021 all mutual contacts have been suspended.
There is a cacophony of blame, including talk about our own “military-industrial complex” stoking the flames of war for financial gain, Ukrainian corruption, etc. I can’t get into this noise. What I do know is that we are at a very dangerous crossroads. We must not only support Ukraine, but also return to a modus vivendi with Russia.
A wise colleague proposed the following solution:
“NATO should rescind Bush II's circa-2006 announcement, imposed on the NATO allies, that, at some time in the future, Ukraine and Georgia would certainly be admitted to NATO. Acc/to NATO criteria neither now qualifies and it can be left to the future to see whether they ever will. In the meanwhile, NATO and Russia should agree to leave Ukraine effectively neutralized; settle the Donbas question via plebiscite and appropriate Ukrainian legislation on the use of the Russian language [already very widely employed, especially in publishing]; have both NATO countries and the Russians pull their offensive forces back, say, 100 miles, from the Russian borders with the former Warsaw Pact states; give Russia the option of joining in a newly defined NATO or European alliance system; and enjoy the ensuing peace.
7 comments:
Who are the Weser allies buying weapons from to support Ukraine?
Sorry, I meant Western allies
I like your analysis and conclusions. Neutral Ukraine and special fair arrangements to the former Soviet states will be conductive to peace in Europe. Russia feels its security is threatened if Ukraine joins NATO and that is understandable. Ukraine in the last three decades was not in NATO and Europe was at peace. Keep the satus quo.
Tom: Definitely do not agree with your conclusions but acknowledge that this issue is complicated. Putin is the Hitler of the 21st century so we cannot make the same mistakes Europe and America made early in Hitler’s war, i..e., the invasion of Poland,
This is an exact illustration of political debate:
1. There is Juliette, whose rhetorical question is obviously meant to remind us that there is a military-industrial complex (largely American) that profits from war. I have been reading and writing about this since President Eisenhower, who was among the first to warn us against this in the 1950s.
2 There is Phil, who is at the opposite end of the spectrum, warning us against the danger of appeasement, as we did towards Hitler in the 1930s.
3. And there Yousif in the middle.
I am with Yousif. Why? Because what we need now is solutions, not polemics. The military-industrial complex is a problem that emerged when America became the “arsenal of democracy” during World War Two and never stopped being the world’s cop since then. I agree that it is a big problem. The US military budget is approaching a trillion dollars a year, one fourth or fifth of the total federal budget.
But I can’t solve this problem, nor can Joe Biden nor anyone else, at this time. What DOES have to be addressed is the possibility of escalation to large-scale international war and the confrontation of the world’s two nuclear superpowers. Ranting about the military-industrial complex won’t do that. Diplomacy, negotiations, compromise and scaling back the hostilities (and the rhetoric) might.
Yes, we are at a very dangerous crossroad. I highly recommend reading Alexander Gabuev's article in The Economist "Elites have hijacked Russia and conflated the country's interest with their own".
It describes Putin's inner circle, mostly with KGB background and in their sixties, they consider the fall of the Soviet Empire the worst and most humiliating event that happened to modern Russia. The Western Democracies are considered weak and the future will be to the totalitarian regimes i.e. Russia and China.
The Third Reich allover again: The Holy Roman Empire - Tsarist Russia, The 19th century German Empire - The Soviet Union, The Third Reich - Current Russia.
I can only be pessimistic about the long term future.
Hans sees things correctly. It's frightening to think that if Hitler had nuclear weapons, he probably would have used them, as he was desperately relying on his V1s and V2s, and hoping that Germany would come up with the ultimate secret weapon that would give the country victory. What Russia, Putin and his coterie of oligarchs will do next is anyone's guess...
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