At the risk if seeming wishy-washy, let me add to my analysis of this conflict. The situation is serious enough to warrant this:
There are two sides to the issue:
My post of Feb. 1 "War Against Russia is not an Option" states Russia’s concerns. I express my worry about NATO’s expansion after the fall of the Soviet Union. We are now reaping the consequence of this error. At the same time, Russia’s brutal invasion of its neighbor must be condemned.
In my last post, I noted Russia’s historical tendency to resort to war against its neighbors and to support regimes opportunistically and immorally for its own nationalistic aims (for example its support of Syria’s murderous Bashar Al-Assad). So there is plenty of blame to go around.
Because of the stakes, and the fact that they pit the two nuclear superpowers against each other, there is no rational alternative to diplomacy and negotiations. This must include two things regarding Ukraine:
(1) Its free and independent existence and
As to the rest of NATO and new members such as the Baltic states: These issues should be resolved by determining the possible and the feasible, during protracted negotiations. Presently, we are statutorily obligated to go to war if these NATO members are attacked (same regarding the mini-states that came out of the former Yugoslavia, plus the former Eastern European Soviet satellites). This is an absurdly heavy blanket promise. Are we ready for nuclear World War Three over a state smaller than Sacramento?
It is not clear what will be acceptable to Russia in the long run, what will assuage her anxieties and prevent further Russian aggression.
What is clear is that there must be rapprochement and compromise between NATO and Russia.
The situation was far more promising right after the fall of Soviet Communism. In 1991, there was talk of Russia joining NATO. While nothing came of this, the two sides did develop a coordinated relationship under the RNC (Russia-NATO Council). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, cooperation has dwindled, and by 2021 all mutual contacts have been suspended.
There is a cacophony of blame, including talk about our own “military-industrial complex” stoking the flames of war for financial gain, Ukrainian corruption, etc. I can’t get into this noise. What I do know is that we are at a very dangerous crossroads. We must not only support Ukraine, but also return to a modus vivendi with Russia.
A wise colleague proposed the following solution:
“NATO should rescind Bush II's circa-2006 announcement, imposed on the NATO allies, that, at some time in the future, Ukraine and Georgia would certainly be admitted to NATO. Acc/to NATO criteria neither now qualifies and it can be left to the future to see whether they ever will. In the meanwhile, NATO and Russia should agree to leave Ukraine effectively neutralized; settle the Donbas question via plebiscite and appropriate Ukrainian legislation on the use of the Russian language [already very widely employed, especially in publishing]; have both NATO countries and the Russians pull their offensive forces back, say, 100 miles, from the Russian borders with the former Warsaw Pact states; give Russia the option of joining in a newly defined NATO or European alliance system; and enjoy the ensuing peace.
