Tom Kando So now it’s Russia, Ukraine, maybe war, etc. As if what the world needs is another war!
Tucker Carlson, that abominable Fox News hate monger, is siding with Russia in the Russia-Ukraine confrontation. In an earlier era, this would have been seen as treasonous. Had any public figure supported the Soviet Union when it invaded Hungary in 1956, he might have been criminally prosecuted.
There is no question that Putin’s saber rattling and Russia’s looming invasion of Ukraine are cause for alarm. At the same time, I have a feeling of deja vu and some unanswered questions:
During much of my life, there was a Cold War. For decades, Russia was the bogeyman. We were told that the Soviet Union, the Commies, were coming. They were going to invade us, nuclear war was around the corner, we fought in Korea, Vietnam, and many other places to keep the Russians at bay. We created NATO:
The Growth of NATO membership:
1949: Original members (12): Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, United Kingdom, United States
1952: (2): Greece, Turkey
1955 (1): Germany
1982: (1): Spain
1999: (3): Former Russian satellites: Czechia, Hungary, Poland
2004: (7):Former Communist states: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
2009: (2): Former Communist states: Albania, Croatia
2017: (1): Former Communist state: Montenegro2020: (1): Former Communist state: North Macedonia
Over the past twenty-two years, fourteen new members have been added who previously were allies or satellites of Russia. Today, five NATO countries border on Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was talk of Russia joining NATO. While nothing came of this, the two sides did develop a coordinated relationship under the RNC (Russia-NATO Council). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, cooperation has dwindled, and by 2021 all mutual contacts have been suspended.
Over the past twenty-two years, fourteen new members have been added who previously were allies or satellites of Russia. Today, five NATO countries border on Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was talk of Russia joining NATO. While nothing came of this, the two sides did develop a coordinated relationship under the RNC (Russia-NATO Council). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, cooperation has dwindled, and by 2021 all mutual contacts have been suspended.
So we are back to the Cold War. Once again the Russians are the bad guys. This is a quandary for Joe Biden, for America, for Europe and for the world.
On the one hand, there is no doubt that Putin’s Russia is a bad actor. It invades countries, as it has done with Georgia and Ukraine, and it may soon do it again. It suppresses dissent, assassinates those who disagree with the ruling regime. There is much that is wrong with Russia. People such as Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump, people who not only sympathize with Russia but would actually side with that country when it engages in naked military aggression, are terribly wrong.
On the other hand, that country’s concern about NATO’s expansion to its doorsteps over the past two decades is understandable. Actually, we should ALL be concerned about this expansion - from its twelve original members in 1949 to thirty now and still growing.
What is NATO all about, anyway? Is it to oppose Communism, as it seemed to be at the time of its creation? Is it an alliance meant to defend democratic regimes? If so, why does it include authoritarian states such as Albania, Hungary and Turkey?
Especially problematic is the treaty’s Article One. It states that “an attack against one or more (member) shall be considered an attack against... all.” (This article, by the way, has been invoked just once, namely after the 9/11 attack).
Should the US be ready to go to war to defend Montenegro, Lithuania or Albania?
Were Ukraine to join NATO (which it wants to), the situation would become even more volatile. If Russia thereupon invaded that country again, this would obligate us and the other 29 NATO members to come to Ukraine’s defense militarily. Same if Russia attacked any of its other neighbors who are NATO members, for example the Baltic republics, which used to be part of the Soviet Union.
Russia is hardly a superpower any more. Its economy is smaller than that of Italy or South Korea. Its population is declining. Its per capita income is one third of that of the US. On the other hand, it has half of the world’ nuclear weapons.
As to us, the US hardly shines these days as the moral leader and protector of the free world. Democracy is under severe attack domestically. Nearly half the American people believes that Trump won the 2020 election, millions refuse to be vaccinated against Covid because they no longer believe in scientific facts, dozens of states are passing voter suppression measures. We face ever more staggering domestic problems, a presidency that is paralyzed by Republican obstructionism, an inability to beat Covid, to rebuild our creaky infrastructure, to reverse growing rates of homelessness, crime, suicide, illness and poverty. I doubt that our European allies are still inspired by our leadership.
We need a war with Russia as much as we need another pandemic.
And if you really want to be scared, just think historically: The world stumbled into both world wars without intending to do so. In 1914, a stupid assassination in Serajevo drew first Hungary, then Russia, then Germany, then France, then the British Empire, then the US, eventually just about everybody into the global nightmare of World War One. The second world war was similarly the result of a gradual escalation that got out of control. First, the US responded to Japanese aggression in China with economic sanctions, embargoes on oil, etc. Japan’s answer was Pearl Harbor. In sum, both times things got out of hand, which led to worldwide conflagration and horror that were unimaginable at the outset. And this was before the nuclear age!
Fortunately, Biden is no warmonger. To his great credit, he got us out of Afghanistan quickly and expeditiously. After some naysaying by a few habitual malcontents, most of us now realize that the end of our involvement in that country was masterful. I am confident that our current president will be smart again and refuse to drag us into Armageddon, i.e. into a war with a nuclear power.
9 comments:
Tom, thanks for the history lesson. You have such a nice way of summarizing our past ... and how it portends for our present situation. Given the current "players" involved in our world confusion, the future looks complicated and full of potential misunderstandings which could trigger all sorts of conflicts. Sure feel the fear fueling the world being on the alert.
Dr. Kando,
Your blog topics are very timely... There is a family here at Johns Hopkins from Ukraine and I have taken interest in understanding the origins of the conflict and the unrelenting tensions between these two territories.
Thank you for your comments. Bill and Gail are two of the most loving people I have ever known. If only those in power were more like them.
Thanks for another good and instructive article, Tom. A reminder of the sequence of NATO membership is helpful.
I agree thoroughly but I'm not convinced that everything will turn out as we wish. The world is in a mess on all levels.
Spot on Tom, but very scary.😩
Tom -- action, however, is necessary. This is my proposal:
NATO should rescind Bush II's circa-2006 announcement, imposed on the NATO allies, that, at some time in the future, Ukraine and Georgia would certainly be admitted to NATO. Acc/to NATO criteria neither now qualifies and it can be left to the future to see whether they ever will. In the meanwhile, NATO and Russia should agree to leave Ukraine effectively neutralized; settle the Donbas question via plebiscite and appropriate Ukrainian legislation on the use of the Russian language [already very widely employed, especially in publishing]; have both NATO countries and the Russians pull their offensive forces back, say, 100 miles, from the Russian borders with the former Warsaw Pact states; give Russia the option of joining in a newly defined NATO or European alliance system; and enjoy the ensuing peace.
Bill, as always, abides by the saying that “the devil is in the details.” Bravo. His plan makes a lot of sense.
By the way, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has not always been hostile. During the Soviet era, the two were of course part of the same country. Prior to that, there had been some Ukrainian separatism, and Russian efforts at Russification of Ukraine. During World War Two, there was some Ukrainian collaboration with Hitler’s occupying armies. However, Ukraine and Russia were solidly together in the effort to expel and defeat Germany. For example, the forces that invaded Hungary and fought the battle of Budapest in 1944-45 were largely Ukrainian.
Thank you for the great "summary". I appreciate your blogs. Phyllis Mills
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