Risk

By Tom Kando

After our recent return from Europe, a friend asked, “Weren’t you afraid of terrorists?” My first impulse was to guffaw, but instead I explained patiently to the dear old woman that she was actually in greater danger driving to the supermarket than we were flying to Europe.

The irrationality of fear is all around us. And it is being stoked by the media, by homeland security, by politicians. When we were in Europe last month, the authorities announced a “red alert.” International travelers were supposed to be more vigilant. We were not given any hint as to what we should DO to make ourselves safer. Essentially, we were simply told to be more AFRAID.

There is the field of Risk Assessment. Governments, Businesses, Insurance Companies and others attempt to determine the potential costs and risks of what they are about to do, before they do it. They try to calculate things rationally and quantitatively. Shouldn’t individuals do likewise?

The average annual number of US airline fatalities is 120 since 2001, and we recently went through 2 years with ZERO fatalities (2008-2009). Car accidents kill nearly 40,000 Americans each year, flu 20,000, murder 16,000.

If you take into account how often people fly, your chances of dying when you step into your car are 22 times greater than when you step on an airplane, domestic or international. The world total of flying fatalities is about 1000 a year.

I can go on: each year, 650,000 Americans die of heart disease, 565,000 of cancer, 30,000 of suicide, 65,000 from other accidents (falling off ladders, etc.).

The Iraq war has killed 553 Americans per year since 2003. In other words, the average US soldier stationed in Iraq had a 4% chance of being killed. When I was diagnosed with prostate cancer, my chances of dying were 10%. Americans have, on average, a one twentieth of one percent chance of being murdered. Their chance of being murdered by a terrorist, since 9/11, has been zero.

But many people are afraid of flying, especially overseas, and nearly everyone is afraid of terrorists. Some people back East told me that they would never want to move to California because of our dangerous earthquakes. Death toll: 2 people during the past decade. Some people say that they don’t want to move to Florida because of the hurricanes. Death toll: 20 per year for the entire US (lightning kills four times more people). Others are afraid to go to Hawaii because of the volcanoes. Death toll: zero.

Irrational fear does not stop at our borders: A few years ago, European guests of ours in Sacramento boiled the tap water before daring to drink it. Meanwhile, everyone drives a car every day, many while intoxicated; a fourth of us smoke, and just about everyone eats himself toward an early heart attack. Risk assessment may not be our forte, but we are heroic risk takers. leave comment here