Do Polls Shape Public Opinion?

by Madeleine Kando

Like many of you, I have been trying to make sense of the Trump phenomenon. How did we get to the point where almost half of the American voting public considers electing a buffoon as our next Commander in Chief?

There are many theories out there trying to explain this: 1. He speaks to the anger of many Americans who are disillusioned politically and suffer economically. 2. He fills a power vacuum in the Republican Party. 3.The sheer volume of media coverage has turned into a self-perpetuating cycle. Etc.

It is also possible that Trump’s incredible power of self-promotion has created the dreaded ‘feedback loop’. Political scientists point to a strong correlation between media coverage and a rise in the polls, especially early on in a campaign. And being chosen to participate in the primary debates also depends on where you stand in the polls. In other words, one step rests on the previous one, which has resulted in Trump’s mystifying success.

It also helps that he talks about every issue in vague terms, leaving room for interpretation of what he says to fit many foot sizes. His BS is an intentional maneuver to disorient and take the sails out of his opponents’ rebukes. He is a master strategist. Maybe it is true that he knows more about the military than the generals.

Unfortunately, the same feedback loop has also caused Hillary to get trapped in a negative spiral. Negative stories about her have been talked about over and over again, ad nauseam. Trump’s response to accusations is to not admit guilt, ignore the accusation and move on to something else.

The real problem with polling is that the results of the polls in one area affect people’s opinion in another part of the country. This is terrible. You get either a self-fulfilling or a self-defeating prophecy. In psychology they call it the ‘bandwagon effect’, when people do something primarily because other people are doing it, especially when they are uninformed.

Is it a coincidence that Trump’s current campaign manager is a pollling expert? Manipulating the ‘will of the people’ is Trump’s middle name, and he is incredibly good at it. He knows that polling not only measures public opinion, but also SHAPES it. leave comment here