Friday, January 21, 2022

Low Vaccination Rates = High Death Rates

Tom Kando 


On January 19, the Sacramento Bee reproduced an article from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram by Cynthia Allen, titled “As Covid rises across the US, pandemic life is better in Texas.” This is just another example of the stubborn ignorance of millions of people who continue to resist mandatory precautions against Covid, including vaccines and masks. This author presents, again, the worn-out and wrong-headed argument that people are better off opening the economy (as is the case in Texas) rather than mandating vaccines, masks, and other life-saving measures (as happens more in the Northeastern states). These people prioritize avoiding minor discomfort above saving lives. 

I don’t mean to rehash this unnecessary debate, or remind you that previous generations had no problem with other vaccines (measles, polio, etc.) Or with mandatory seat belt laws, etc., etc. I don’t know whether there are more ignorant people now than in the past, or more here than overseas. But I’ll remind you that the US has 4.2% of the world’s population, but, shamefully, 21% of the world’s Covid cases and 15.8% of the world’s Covid deaths. And there is no evidence that this is because we test more than everyone else. 

I just want to give you some straightforward prima facie evidence that people like this Fort Worth woman are so very wrong. 
Using Johns Hopkins data, I ranked all 50 states for two variables: (1) The Covid death rates per million population and (2) the rates of vaccination per 100 population. The lists below show the results:

The 19 states with the highest rates of Covid deaths per million pop, ranked from high to low: 
#1: Mississippi 
#2: Arizona 
#3: Alabama 
#5: Louisiana 
#7: Tennessee 
#8: Arkansas 
#9: West Virginia 
#12: Indiana 
#15: Georgia 
#16: Oklahoma 
#17: Florida 
#19: South Carolina 
#20: South Dakota 
#21: Kentucky 
#23: Montana 
#24: Wyoming 
#25: Missouri 
#26: North Dakota 
#27: Texas 

The 17 states with the LOWEST rates of vaccination, ranked from low to high: 
#1: Idaho 
#2: Alabama 
#3: Mississippi 
#4: Wyoming 
#5: Louisiana 
#6: Georgia 
#7: Arkansas 
#8: Indiana 
#9: North Dakota 
#10: Tennessee 
#11: Kentucky 
#12: Missouri 
#13: Montana 
#14: South Carolina 
#17: West Virginia 
#20: Kansas 
#22: Texas 

Almost all the states (15) that appear on one list also appear on the other. The correlation between a high Covid death rate and a low vaccination rate is inescapable. Of course, we already knew this. Dr. Fauci and others who know what they are talking about are reminding us of this ad nauseam. I just wanted to show it to you once more: If you live in one of these states, you are more likely to die from Covid BECAUSE many people in your state refuse to take the simple, free, painless medication which saves lives. 
 It is true that a few states (e.g. New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, etc.) do not conform to my generalization. But their high Covid infection and mortality rates are due to other factors than vaccine resistance, for example high population density, widespread use of public transportation, etc.

International comparisons are more difficult. The countries that currently vaccinate the least are mostly in Africa. This is of course due to lack of resources. The data on Covid deaths in most of those countries indicate low death rates, but this is meaningless, as the data are not reliable, and it isn’t clear how widely the virus has spread so far. South Africa, for example, has a covid death rate of 1,554 per million, and a vaccination rate of 49.1%. 

However, when comparing most advanced countries with the US, this country does lag behind in its vaccination rate. For example, the US has administered 159 vaccines per 100 people. In contrast, the European Union has administered 181, Japan’s number is 161, China’s is 209, France’s is 206 and Canada’s is 199. And as I stated above, our rate of Covid deaths is much higher than that of all those countries.

P.S. Perhaps a clarification is in order.  There is some disagreement as to who is ahead on vaccinations, the US or the European Union:

For example, according to Dataset, 75% of the US population has been vaccinated against Covid, vs. only 74% of the European Union. 
However, this is misleading: 
The US vaccinations consist of 63% of the population fully vaccinated plus 12% only partly vaccinated. 
The European vaccinations consist of 71% fully vaccinated and 3.46% partly vaccinated. 
The total number of vaccines administered in the European Union per capita is much higher than it is in the US: As I stated in my article, the European Union has administered 181 vaccines per 100 population, whereas the number for the US is only 159. 
Also,  the discrepancy is growing: Currently, the US is administering 1 million vaccines per day, or 1 for every 328 people. The European Union is injecting 2.5 million vaccines every day, or 1 for every 179 people. (See Bloomberg).


© Tom Kando 2022;All Rights Reserved